Covid prevalence post-vaccinations
Q: What’s common between Cambodia, Thailand, Taiwan and Vietnam?
A: All the above countries had low covid prevalence before the onset of mass vaccinations, but cases have skyrocketed after the onset of vaccinations
Here’s what the charts looks like
Q: What’s common between US, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Belgium?
A: All the above countries had relatively high covid prevalence before the onset of mass vaccinations, but cases have continued a more or less downward trajectory after the onset of vaccinations
Here’s what the charts looks like
Based on the above, it seems the following hypothesis is likely holding true:
- Antibody dependent enhancement (ADE), a phenomenon in which the vaccine antibodies enhance rather than protect from the disease, is manifesting in vaccinated seronegative (no prior history of natural infection) populations, but not in vaccinated seropositive (prior history of natural infection)populations, causing cases to rise
- Where ADE is being observed, vaccinated people after becoming symptomatic are also becoming spreaders, causing cases to rise
A parallel to #1 above is observed in the failed dengue vaccination campaign in 2017, where ADE was observed in vaccinated seronegative subjects
The big question mark though is around the Indian variant — B.1.617 and what impact this has on seropositive populations regardless of vaccination status. For e.g., a seroprevalence study in Delhi before the second wave had shown that 56% had developed antibodies. Despite this fact, daily cases touched all time highs around mid-April, up 3x from the previous high (chart source: NDTV)
Where are the variants coming from? Are these the direct impact of mass vaccinations? Per virologist and Nobel laureate Luc Montagnier, it is.
Note: Dataset for the graphs -> http://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data…
